25-26 Roster Expectations

[Spidey]

They "chose" their redshirt after the idea was mentioned to them. We should have played things out, let the freshmen keep practicing everyday knowing mentally they might be part of the rotation. And, if not from game 1, after a few ugly OOC games when it was obvious our current guys were gonna win about 8 games, give them a chance. If we are trying to win like you said, why not change things up and see what our rotation looks like heading into A-10 play? If they play well, they get great experience, make us a better team, and give us a boost and some hope last season. If they don't play well, and don't look like they can be good players for us, at least we know heading into the portal and the season this year, what to expect from them.

No they didn’t Chose!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[MDSpider8]

Have we ever had a red shirt freshman make a significant first playing year impact in the Mooney era?

Go Spiders!

Did some digging on this... the recent track record with true developmental redshirts is not good. In the last 10 years, there isn't a single developmental redshirt who has made a real multi-year impact on the program. Here are the most recent (NOTE: I am not counting Soulis, Grant, or Khwan because they were medical redshirts, not developmental):

- Noyes: Transferred, career 2.5 PPG.
- Jason Nelson: Transferred, 8 PPG in one season (he's undoubtedly the best one we've had).
- Malcolm Dread: Transferred, non-contributor.
- Verbinskis: Transferred, played in 4 career games.
- Bryce Schneider: Transferred, played in 2 career games.

Would love for Robinson or McGlothin to break this trend, but consider me skeptical.

 

[sman]

No they didn’t Chose!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

what do you mean?

 

[Section9_RowD]

Did some digging on this... the recent track record with true developmental redshirts is not good. In the last 10 years, there isn't a single developmental redshirt who has made a real multi-year impact on the program. Here are the most recent (NOTE: I am not counting Soulis, Grant, or Khwan because they were medical redshirts, not developmental):

- Noyes: Transferred, career 2.5 PPG.
- Jason Nelson: Transferred, 8 PPG in one season (he's undoubtedly the best one we've had).
- Malcolm Dread: Transferred, non-contributor.
- Verbinskis: Transferred, played in 4 career games.
- Bryce Schneider: Transferred, played in 2 career games.

Would love for Robinson or McGlothin to break this trend, but consider me skeptical.

And generally a unique situation for JayNel given Gilly getting the COVID year .. plus wonder just a bit how different his UR career might have been had he not come right after the Great Gilly at PG.

 

[vt4700]

it's not like you declare it and sign some document. at any time, either could have played if coach felt they would get substantial time ... and if the freshmen wanted to use the year. both players chose to save the year.

So, when they are in street clothes at halftime, let's tell them to put the uniform on and play the 2nd half?

 

[vt4700]

And generally a unique situation for JayNel given Gilly getting the COVID year .. plus wonder just a bit how different his UR career might have been had he not come right after the Great Gilly at PG.

And redshirting Nelson, even though I am not a fan of redshirting, was at least when an all conference big minute guy was in front of him. Redshirting our freshmen last year when the guys in front of them had barely played any minutes? Terrible decision.

If they redshirted because the system was too hard to learn, change the freaking system. If they redshirted because they weren't as good as Tanner or AP...recruit better freshmen.

 

[Spider17]

If they redshirted because the system was too hard to learn, change the freaking system

We might be seeing the impact of this now with recruiting. If we start redshirting freshmen every year now and none or very rarely one is getting meaningful minutes, I’m sure that’ll be noticed by prospective high school recruits. Most recruits want to make immediate impact and not come in knowing there’s a good chance they will not play the first 1-2 years since it take more time to learn the system. I’m sure also noticed by other coaches who are competing against us for the same recruits.

 

[RichmondNative]

Did some digging on this... the recent track record with true developmental redshirts is not good. In the last 10 years, there isn't a single developmental redshirt who has made a real multi-year impact on the program. Here are the most recent (NOTE: I am not counting Soulis, Grant, or Khwan because they were medical redshirts, not developmental):

- Noyes: Transferred, career 2.5 PPG.
- Jason Nelson: Transferred, 8 PPG in one season (he's undoubtedly the best one we've had).
- Malcolm Dread: Transferred, non-contributor.
- Verbinskis: Transferred, played in 4 career games.
- Bryce Schneider: Transferred, played in 2 career games.

Would love for Robinson or McGlothin to break this trend, but consider me skeptical.

I think both of these guys will surpass the achievements on the list as the list, other than Nelson, is filled with long shots who I think no one was excited about signing. Nelson is the one disappointment, but he wasn’t going to get on the court with Gilly playing so why not take a redshirt.

The problem isn’t the redshirting. The problem is the high school recruiting. Way too many misses and reaches and not enough A10 level pickups. Of course, one could say the recent focus has been the portal and there the staff has had marginally better luck. Unfortunately, it could be that only beginners luck has been at play.

 

[PhillySpider]

Did some digging on this... the recent track record with true developmental redshirts is not good. In the last 10 years, there isn't a single developmental redshirt who has made a real multi-year impact on the program. Here are the most recent (NOTE: I am not counting Soulis, Grant, or Khwan because they were medical redshirts, not developmental):

- Noyes: Transferred, career 2.5 PPG.
- Jason Nelson: Transferred, 8 PPG in one season (he's undoubtedly the best one we've had).
- Malcolm Dread: Transferred, non-contributor.
- Verbinskis: Transferred, played in 4 career games.
- Bryce Schneider: Transferred, played in 2 career games.

Would love for Robinson or McGlothin to break this trend, but consider me skeptical.

I tend to agree with this skepticism. Put simply, I don't think any of our guys historically (save Nelson) are being asked to redshirt because we think they have great potential and we want to get a full 4 years out of them. They are being redshirted because they look a bit overmatched and won't see the floor. I am sure we hope they develop during this time, but the reality is if they arrived that overmatched, the improvement needed is vast and really tough without games etc. The tag "developmental" redshirt is to me a misnomer for us. They are mostly just recruiting misses and as such, I really disagree with redshirting them because it uses up the scholarship for an extra year. I'd rather keep them active freshman year - - if they improve great and we keep them, but if they don't, the inevitable transfer happens a year earlier!

 

[sman]

So, when they are in street clothes at halftime, let's tell them to put the uniform on and play the 2nd half?

by "at any time", you know I didn't mean like at halftime.
but if Dusan got hurt and based on practices Mooney wanted McG going forward, he could have been "working with the ones" the next day.

point was it's never a "hard stance". there's always flexibility ... if the player is ok using up a full year to play a partial one.

 

[MrTbone]

not about giving them a year to learn. it was that at the start of the year they were buried. we had high expectations for the guys ahead of them. sure, at some point we could have pulled the trigger. but we weren't sitting Dusan, AP and Roche to play the freshmen. we were trying to win games.

I'm saying it was the right move for the freshmen's careers. they should be a lot better this year as redshirt freshmen than they would have been last year.

Again, you can’t possibly know that although I’ll of course concede that it’s rational. It looked like the right decision after summer practice and a couple of scrimmages.

But given the absolute garbage we were showing at the small forward spot I would have gladly given these guys a pile of minutes as we were not good and showed virtually no shot at post season, whether it was ncaa/nit or otherwise. That was evident very early on.

As the Bad News Bears fan club used to say, “let them play!”

 

[sman]

yes, admittedly there's no way for me to "know".
but it seems pretty rational to assume a kid's 19-23 basketball years with a year playing, learning the system, and lifting weights will in total be better than his 18-22.

 

[Urmite]

Kovien Dominaus without the redshirt. 1 minute vs Stetson 11/15/2015 = season.

 

[SensibleSpider]

I'm going to be in the minority here and I think sman may be the only one who agrees but I think we see a good amount of improvement in AP's numbers this year, particularly his outside shooting. I have no insight other than watching his form in game but I think he can be a mid to high 30s % 3-point shooter, especially if he is smart about shot selection. Hopefully he has developed some sort of off the dribble game as well, it was painfully obvious last year he didn't have the confidence in driving down the lane but this would open up his outside game if defenders have to respect multiple ways of scoring.

 

[SensibleSpider]

And redshirting Nelson, even though I am not a fan of redshirting, was at least when an all conference big minute guy was in front of him. Redshirting our freshmen last year when the guys in front of them had barely played any minutes? Terrible decision.

If they redshirted because the system was too hard to learn, change the freaking system. If they redshirted because they weren't as good as Tanner or AP...recruit better freshmen.

This is spot on IMO. The HS recruiting in recent cycles has largely not been up to standard. Almost all of them have either been non impact guys or have transferred out to lower conferences.

 

[Spider17]

I'm going to be in the minority here and I think sman may be the only one who agrees but I think we see a good amount of improvement in AP's numbers this year, particularly his outside shooting. I have no insight other than watching his form in game but I think he can be a mid to high 30s % 3-point shooter, especially if he is smart about shot selection. Hopefully he has developed some sort of off the dribble game as well, it was painfully obvious last year he didn't have the confidence in driving down the lane but this would open up his outside game if defenders have to respect multiple ways of scoring.

I think AP will do better off the bench and we ride the hot hand whenever he has it than as a starter.

 

[vt4700]

not about giving them a year to learn. it was that at the start of the year they were buried. we had high expectations for the guys ahead of them. sure, at some point we could have pulled the trigger. but we weren't sitting Dusan, AP and Roche to play the freshmen. we were trying to win games.

I'm saying it was the right move for the freshmen's careers. they should be a lot better this year as redshirt freshmen than they would have been last year.

Why were there high expectations for Tanner and AP?

Tanner had played 25 career minutes and scored 4 career points going into last season.
AP had played 81 career minutes and scored 29 career points going into last year.

Yet, we decide to redshirt a couple freshmen who Mooney has talked up because they were buried behind Tanner and AP? Buried? Not even a little behind them, where they could compete with them and possibly pass them in the rotation last year, but buried behind them? Unless the redshirts are below average players who will never be big factors for us, I will never understand that decision.

 

[MrTbone]

yes, admittedly there's no way for me to "know".
but it seems pretty rational to assume a kid's 19-23 basketball years with a year playing, learning the system, and lifting weights will in total be better than his 18-22.

You’re missing the point. If you concede that actual game time matters (it does), then where he’s at developmentally from 18 to 19 is going to be further if he actually played in games from 18 to 19. It’s relative.

It’s fine if you want to bank on having him for the extra redshirt year, but I’d rather accelerate a guys development, especially when we don’t have dramatically better alternatives.