to clarify, I meant that he lands 2 studs in the remaining years (he has until 2029!!!!), not necessarily this year, and not necessarily both in the same year.
So here is the timeline that I fear because it means more Moon, but honestly I'm not rooting against any AA led team(s) so...
Assumption #1 - I assume we are looking for a center and a tall, athletic shooting forward in the portal this offseason as our primary concerns.
This offseason, he lands Quinn + Bigs equivalents (solid players, not game-changers, but foundational upperclassmen with a couple years left), enough to keep the ship afloat next season, but like all players "learning" Moonball means you're good in year 2, not year 1. AA continues to develop his 3 ball and his finishing at the rim and looks poised for a year 3 run at A10 first or second team. So year 1 (next year) is - as mentioned - treading water. 17-14 season, we can again score and again struggle to defend anyone and again play sisters of the poor 13 times OOC.
The following offseason, with 2 years left on the contract and him being acutely aware of it, he then gets a scoring dynamo like King to play next to rising junior AA after Tyne and Thomas graduate (along with Tanner and Daughtry). This year's center transfer and wing transfer make Quinn/Bigs year 2 leaps, with the center becoming the 2nd stud player (basically Quinn/3rd team A10) and the guys like JRob, Harper and any other HS recruits are now in the system multi years and comfortable playing with one another, adding some size, shooting and athleticism, and improved defense as a whole. Our backcourt is lights out with AA and the portal scorer. That is a good season - let's say top 4 in A10 and 22 wins minimum with AA, Jordan King clone, Harper, JRob, A10 3rd team center starting and the best of the HS recruits and portal lands prove to have at least 2 impact guys.
At that point Hardt has to make the call on an extension or let Moon coach out the last year of his deal without a contract, which is basically telling him he's gone no matter what. AA is a rising senior at that point, maybe a couple other returnees like Harper and JRob have made statistical leaps and we have a glimmer of light that the season after a good one is not falling off a cliff.
Hardt fires up the 3 year extension, no doubt in my mind.