Spiders No. 19

Our NET is really just stuck. Even the Rhody loss only cost us two spots and since then we've just been bouncing between 47 and 48 despite four straight wins. Moved back up to 47 after yesterday's win.
 
Our NET is really just stuck. Even the Rhody loss only cost us two spots and since then we've just been bouncing between 47 and 48 despite four straight wins. Moved back up to 47 after yesterday's win.
And its probably gonna stay there too (unless we lose some games we shouldn't and it goes down). Not really any games left that will give us a real boost but strong enough that we won't just sink no matter what. This is why I think our at-large chances are sorta on very thin ice already. No real path to get the Net up, no signature wins, and the loss to Fairfield means we are behind them for an at-large for sure (so we need them to win an auto-bid). Best/only chance for getting net up into mid-30's (minimum at large-range for us I'd say) is a very gaudy conference record. a dominant regular season title and then a loss to a good team in the A-10 final is probably our only shot at the Net we need and an at-large. But we should also be in strong position to win the tournament and not have to worry about the at-large.
 
NET isn't just about the wins and losses and opponent quality, it's about the efficiency metrics. So we need to blow teams out as much as possible if we want any hope of moving up significantly.
 
NET isn't just about the wins and losses and opponent quality, it's about the efficiency metrics. So we need to blow teams out as much as possible if we want any hope of moving up significantly.
SF that is a shame that teams are encouraged to run up score to improve NET. I know one game we had
about 25 point lead going into Q4 and Roussell emptied his bench and we won by 15, which made game look
much closer. If that is what the NET has come to, then that is just another nail in the coffin of sportsmanship
and reduction in bench players gaining experience.
 
The NET originally included a margin of victory component that was capped at 10 points. That was removed a number of years ago, but there is still a heavily weighted net efficiency metric (so points per possession offensive and defensive), adjusted for opponent quality, and it largely serves as a margin of victory proxy without a cap.

If you score frequently and prevent the other team from scoring frequently, you’ll have great efficiency numbers, but it also means you’ve probably blown the other team out.
 
Yeah the efficiency numbers are important but they are basically weighed against "expectation" - - so blowing out (and presumably as you said having good efficiency numbers) a terrible team doesn't do much for you, but blowing out a good team will. And this is all part of the situation we are in now. We could move up some if we blow everyone out, but only a handful of those games would actually be doing us any good really and we'd have to basically hit on 'em all etc. And there are other variables too - - like how all the teams you have played do themselves over the rest of the season (mostly really just the OOC opponents). But the reality is that its going to be very hard for us to push the Net into confident at-large range without a near perfect run. Beyond the Net, to get an at-large, we would need (IMHO) (1) to be outright A-10 Champs (maybe tied would be ok) and it needs to be with a very strong conference record (5 conf losses but still first won't get it I don't think); (2) we need to validate that showing by making the tourney Final before losing and (3) we can't take any really "bad" losses.

Trying to create an at-large profile when the Net is likely to be borderline and we don't have a great signature win (and have lost to all the teams we have played that would themselves get or be considered for at-large spot) requires something to hang our hat on. So league champs has to be that and we need to stay away from the bad loss - - right now, our losses are very solid - - which is itself a part of a good profile. But the Net is going to stay iffy barring something crazy the rest of the way.
 
We still have (NET in parenthesis) @George Mason (67) vs. George Mason (67), @Davidson (53), vs. Rhode Island (51), and @Saint Joseph’s (78). Plenty of opportunities to add more quality wins.
 
We still have (NET in parenthesis) @George Mason (67) vs. George Mason (67), @Davidson (53), vs. Rhode Island (51), and @Saint Joseph’s (78). Plenty of opportunities to add more quality wins.
They are Top 100 wins and thus nice wins for sure, but nothing in that group is anything that's going to be something the committee looks at as impressive enough to justify at-large. Cumulatively, winning the conference might be a notable enough achievement to take note of. But its going to be tough, because we really have to win most all of them to get the conference title and the Net movement. We might very well need to win our bid in the tourney this year.
 
They are Top 100 wins and thus nice wins for sure, but nothing in that group is anything that's going to be something the committee looks at as impressive enough to justify at-large. Cumulatively, winning the conference might be a notable enough achievement to take note of. But its going to be tough, because we really have to win most all of them to get the conference title and the Net movement. We might very well need to win our bid in the tourney this year.
I think Richmond has earned enough caché that we’ll get the nod over other bubble teams, especially if we we win 4 of the 5 games I listed above, have no bad losses, and finish in low 40s of NET.
 
Spider get a mid-week bye and then it's a big game at Mason next Sunday. The Patriots are currently 6–0 in A-10 play and are leading a solid St. Joe's team...it was a 12-point margin at the half but the Hawks have reeled off the first 6 points of the third quarter to tighten things up. Mason also has to go to Bona on Wednesday...shouldn't be a tough game, but at least we'll be at home resting up and polishing things.

La Salle refused to go away against Davidson today, but the Wildcats got the 62–58 win there.

And Duquesne had a first-quarter lead over Rhody, but the Rams are now cruising toward a ~20 points lead.

So the top of the A-10 is continuing to stack up wins...Spiders gotta keep up and knock off GM and Rhody that have yet to lose in A-10 play.
 
I think Richmond has earned enough caché that we’ll get the nod over other bubble teams, especially if we we win 4 of the 5 games I listed above, have no bad losses, and finish in low 40s of NET.
I'd mostly agree with this. Win 4 out 5 of those games (and 3 of the 5 are road games) and no bad losses will probably get us at least a share of the A-10 title (and I think that's very important) and will likely get us an outright title. And if its only that one loss and no others (any others being "bad" losses) we'd have the gaudy record too. I also think that would likely get our net into the mid-thirties and all together that would get us a bid as long as we also get to A-10 final. But I agree that if we do all that and only end up at low 40's net, we'd still have a good chance for the at-large.
 
Three who are deserving- quite possibly. But given the limited number of slots it’s very unlikely. Sweeney was preseason second team and I suspect that’s where she’ll end up. You have to figure Mason and URI will have first team selections as well.
 
Season's obviously not over, but Walton at Mason is likely a lock for first-team. Rhody is doing it with a team effort, so they don't really have a standout star who screams first-team. But if they get at least a share of the title you have to figure they'll find someone to put on there. Black from Fordham is playing great but her team stinks.

They do pick 6 for each team, so there are slots there. But I agree three first-teamers from one program is unlikely. Even last year when we ran away with things we had Doogan and Ullstrom on first team and then Budnik on second team.
 
From The Athletic January 23:

Sneaky strong A-10​

If you aren’t paying attention to the A-10, now is the time to tune in. It’s home to Maggie Doogan, one of the country’s best players, who is averaging 23.2 points, 8.6 rebounds and 4.6 assists. Doogan helped Richmond to an NCAA Tournament first-round win over Georgia Tech last season before recording 27 points, seven assists, six rebounds and two blocks in a second-round loss to UCLA. She’s must-see TV, but she’s far from the only exciting thing about the A-10.

Rhode Island, Richmond, George Mason and Davidson are March Madness-caliber squads. The A-10 will likely be a two-bid league, but there is a world in which it earns three bids. It’s going to be an absolute battle between those top four squads for the automatic bid. That means the A-10 could be one of the most exciting conference tournaments to watch this season.
 
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