Here's a breakdown of our quad opportunities both OOC and in A10 play and what I anticipate by end of season.
OOC: I am going to make the following assumptions with OOC. 1) W&M will move down from Q2 once CAA play starts but they will be good enough to remain Q3. 2) I think Belmont will move from Q1 to Q2 by end of season. 3) I think Furman will move to Q3 by end of season. 4) Southern Illinois will be Q3 game
So with the assumptions above and everything else the same, here's the breakdown:
Q1 - None
Q2 - 1 (@ Belmont)
Q3 - 3 (vs. W&M, vs. Southern Illinois, @Elon)
Q4/Non-D1 - 9
A10 play: I'll make 2 assumptions. 1) @ Rhode Island ends up a Q3 game (not Q1 as currently listed) and vs. Dayton will be a Q2 game. Otherwise, I am sure there will be other changes with NET rankings in the end with some teams moving up and others down so hard to account for that. The 2 above are what I am most confident in.
With those assumptions, here's the breakdown below:
Q1 - 3 games
Q2 - 7 games
Q3 - 5 games
Q4 - 3 games
I know that I am preaching to the choir here, but that is why it is so incredibly disappointing that we have such a lackluster schedule. 10 Q1/Q2 games in A10 play is excellent! Other than Fordham and La Salle who are always bad, only Loyola and Saint Joseph's have been a disappointment, maybe Duquesne too. Not only are there likely 10 opportunities for Q1/Q2 but limiting Q4 games is great. I can also see Saint Joe's and Loyola sneaking into Q3 by the end too and maybe Rhode Island as a Q2, but am not entirely sure.
Still, the A10 portion of the schedule gives us opportunities to be an at-large.
Unfortunately, our atrocious OOC with having one of the worst strength of schedule is going to hinder us. What is going to hinder us the most is not the lack of Q1 games, but the 9 (!) Q4/Non-D1 games we have. If we had scheduled even decent mid majors like Belmont and only 1 power conference team, we could be looking at 4 Q1/Q2 opportunities in OOC. Add that with A10 play and a total of 14 Q1/Q2 opportunities will be there for us, which is enough - that if we win most of those games and not lose to any Q4s - would put us in the at-large conversation.
Instead, even if we finish 11-1 in OOC and 15-3 in A10 play (like we did 2 years ago) I don't think we have a strong enough case for an at-large. All we needed was to have even a mediocre OOC and it would've been good enough that we could all have hope for at-large since this year's team does seem to have the talent to win meaningful games.