Indiana State was 27–6 and #28 in the NET a couple of years ago and got left out, and their OOC SOS was only ranked #188 so it wasn't even that terrible.
They were 1–4 in Q1 with a win over Bradley and regular-season losses at Bama and Michigan State and at Drake, plus they lost in the MVC championship game to Drake again. They were 4–1 in Q2 with home wins over Drake and Bradley and road wins over UNI and Belmont, with the loss being at #117 Southern Illinois. The rest of their games were all Q3/Q4 with the only blemish being a Q4 home loss to #178 Illinois State.
As it stands right now, we only have three Q1 games on our entire schedule, though we could potentially add another one (two seems unlikely) in the A-10 tourney. Sure, we're currently undefeated in Q1/Q2 games, but it's a sample size of two. We'll have some more opportunities (mostly Q2), but the selection committee is not going to look kindly on our résumé even if we somehow end up with a gaudy record. And I've yet to be convinced we can march through the A-10. The A-10 gives us maybe one or two more Q1/Q2 games than Indiana State had that year, but unlike the P4, that's not enough to overcome a crappy OOC schedule.