China Threat
- Thread starter Gallipoli
- Start date
This article makes the case that the US is distracted, opening a window for an attack on Taiwan.
The Chinese strongman, Xi, has sacked his two top generals, who were on the Central Miltary Commission. Xi is now effectively in control of the military and is heavily focused on taking over Taiwan. The fraying of the rules of order under Trump and the invasion of Ukraine are contributing factors. Trump is also sending signals that are eroding our position vis a vis Taiwan.
"Xi Jinping tightens his iron grip on China’s military with the shocking purge of its most senior uniformed official, Zhang Youxia. This unprecedented upheaval has swept not only Zhang, the formidable first-ranked vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), but also General Liu Zhenli, head of the military’s Joint Staff Department, into an investigation for “grave violations of discipline and law.”
www.nationalreview.com
The Chinese strongman, Xi, has sacked his two top generals, who were on the Central Miltary Commission. Xi is now effectively in control of the military and is heavily focused on taking over Taiwan. The fraying of the rules of order under Trump and the invasion of Ukraine are contributing factors. Trump is also sending signals that are eroding our position vis a vis Taiwan.
"Xi Jinping tightens his iron grip on China’s military with the shocking purge of its most senior uniformed official, Zhang Youxia. This unprecedented upheaval has swept not only Zhang, the formidable first-ranked vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), but also General Liu Zhenli, head of the military’s Joint Staff Department, into an investigation for “grave violations of discipline and law.”
With Xi Jinping’s Purge of China’s Most Senior Uniformed Official, War in Taiwan May Be a Step Closer | National Review
The move by Xi marks a seismic shift in Beijing’s power structure.
www.nationalreview.com
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The Abraham Lincoln strike group was redeloyed from the South China Sea to the Middle East. We have no carrier presence to deter China in the area.
My take- China sacked it's top two generals who are against a Taiwan invasion. Xi is looking long and hard at a quick invasion of Taiwan, while Trump's attention is on Iran and Venezuela.
My take- China sacked it's top two generals who are against a Taiwan invasion. Xi is looking long and hard at a quick invasion of Taiwan, while Trump's attention is on Iran and Venezuela.
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The world has become a dangerous place and we are going to need our friends.
This analysis takes a different view. That China sacked its two top generals, because Xi wanted greater control over the military. It also seemed to insinuate that Xi was "comfortable" with the Taiwan situation. The political air in Taipei may be leaning towards a rapprochement with China. It also points out that Trump has sent signals to China that the US will sit on the sidelines in the event of an invasion of Taiwan.
"The Trump administration does not seem to be especially ready to defend Taiwan: U.S. President Donald Trump said “it’s up to Xi” what China does regarding Taiwan, and the National Defense Strategy released by his administration last month omitted any mention of Taiwan."
www.foreignaffairs.com
"The Trump administration does not seem to be especially ready to defend Taiwan: U.S. President Donald Trump said “it’s up to Xi” what China does regarding Taiwan, and the National Defense Strategy released by his administration last month omitted any mention of Taiwan."
Xi the Destroyer
The latest military purge signals China’s leader is entering a new era.
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This is a summary of a letter that Gen. Zhang drafted in December of 2025, in the event he was sacked. It was posted on a Twitter feed.
He sees a war over Taiwan, managed by President Xi. Though not mentioned here, Xi has picked 2027 as the decisive year to settle the Taiwan question. Keep in mind that this may not have been written by Ge. Zhang.
Gen. Zhang makes several bold predictions:
If I am arrested this time, there is a very high chance that Jinping will turn China into North Korea, and be single-mindedly focused on the military unification of Taiwan. He will also use the military to impose martial law in the country at any time....
More seriously, I've discovered that he's been constantly seeking opportunities, genuinely wanting to launch a war. He particularly desires to personally command a large-scale conflict. The conflict in the South China Sea, especially the one on the Sino-Indian border, is completely unnecessary. I am a veteran of war. When leaders launch wars, countless soldiers sacrifice their lives....
Fighting Taiwan, followed by war with the US and Japan, wouldn't be as simple as Deng Xiaoping's war in Vietnam and the suppression of students. His family and our country would face endless disasters; tens or even hundreds of thousands of soldiers would sacrifice their lives—I can't even imagine the consequences....
The army is meant to protect the country and the people; to think the army is only for fighting is, of course, a seriously flawed view. As a member of the Central Military Commission, I can still advise him, or at least restrain him from making serious mistakes. If I were arrested, Liu Zhenli and many other comrades would also be arrested....
The issues were personnel matters and the need to use the military to put the entire country on a state of war preparedness, aiming to seize Taiwan while Russia was fighting Ukraine. Comrade Liu Zhenli and I disagreed, while Zhang Shengmin remained silent. I believed the Central Military Commission should adhere to democratic centralism, but Comrade Jinping accused me of violating the Chairman's responsibility system. As a result, he became ill from anger and was hospitalized, almost causing the Third Plenary Session to collapse. ...
I originally wanted to liberate Taiwan and complete the great cause of national reunification. However, after listening to Liu Yazhou's analysis, I broke out in a cold sweat. Even if hundreds of thousands of soldiers were thrown into the sea, they wouldn't be able to get close to Taiwan. If war broke out, Japan would get involved, followed by the United States. Military facilities, bridges, and oil depots along the southern coast of China would be destroyed by the US-Japan coalition within hours. We could also destroy some buildings in Taiwan, but in the end, we would still have to pay war reparations, and all of the country's overseas assets would be frozen. The nation would cease to exist, and the party and the country would perish.
He sees a war over Taiwan, managed by President Xi. Though not mentioned here, Xi has picked 2027 as the decisive year to settle the Taiwan question. Keep in mind that this may not have been written by Ge. Zhang.
Gen. Zhang makes several bold predictions:
If I am arrested this time, there is a very high chance that Jinping will turn China into North Korea, and be single-mindedly focused on the military unification of Taiwan. He will also use the military to impose martial law in the country at any time....
More seriously, I've discovered that he's been constantly seeking opportunities, genuinely wanting to launch a war. He particularly desires to personally command a large-scale conflict. The conflict in the South China Sea, especially the one on the Sino-Indian border, is completely unnecessary. I am a veteran of war. When leaders launch wars, countless soldiers sacrifice their lives....
Fighting Taiwan, followed by war with the US and Japan, wouldn't be as simple as Deng Xiaoping's war in Vietnam and the suppression of students. His family and our country would face endless disasters; tens or even hundreds of thousands of soldiers would sacrifice their lives—I can't even imagine the consequences....
The army is meant to protect the country and the people; to think the army is only for fighting is, of course, a seriously flawed view. As a member of the Central Military Commission, I can still advise him, or at least restrain him from making serious mistakes. If I were arrested, Liu Zhenli and many other comrades would also be arrested....
The issues were personnel matters and the need to use the military to put the entire country on a state of war preparedness, aiming to seize Taiwan while Russia was fighting Ukraine. Comrade Liu Zhenli and I disagreed, while Zhang Shengmin remained silent. I believed the Central Military Commission should adhere to democratic centralism, but Comrade Jinping accused me of violating the Chairman's responsibility system. As a result, he became ill from anger and was hospitalized, almost causing the Third Plenary Session to collapse. ...
I originally wanted to liberate Taiwan and complete the great cause of national reunification. However, after listening to Liu Yazhou's analysis, I broke out in a cold sweat. Even if hundreds of thousands of soldiers were thrown into the sea, they wouldn't be able to get close to Taiwan. If war broke out, Japan would get involved, followed by the United States. Military facilities, bridges, and oil depots along the southern coast of China would be destroyed by the US-Japan coalition within hours. We could also destroy some buildings in Taiwan, but in the end, we would still have to pay war reparations, and all of the country's overseas assets would be frozen. The nation would cease to exist, and the party and the country would perish.
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The three sources above attach significance to the sacking of two top generals within the PLA. All three point to a power move to gain total control of the army. Two of the three mention a Taiwan invasion, the third downplays a risk of invasion.
The letter by Gen. Zhang specifically mentions increased domestic controls, approaching the level of North Korea.
I see parallels to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Like Putin, Xi is now in absolute control. He is also surrounded by yes men, who agree that an invasion of Taiwan would be a good thing.
Taiwan is a wealthy country and has the ability to defend itself.
If China attacks Taiwan, Japan has said it will support Taiwan. This will have very serious consequences for our national security.
The letter by Gen. Zhang specifically mentions increased domestic controls, approaching the level of North Korea.
I see parallels to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Like Putin, Xi is now in absolute control. He is also surrounded by yes men, who agree that an invasion of Taiwan would be a good thing.
Taiwan is a wealthy country and has the ability to defend itself.
If China attacks Taiwan, Japan has said it will support Taiwan. This will have very serious consequences for our national security.
