Seeing several bracketology folks including Lunardi just now indicating that if VCU loses today, it'll likely come down to them, SMU, and Texas for the final two spots. Lunardi thinks San Diego State is even behind Oklahoma and Auburn in the pecking order.
There is definitely something to be said for the late A-10 final and them not wanting to move to much. I recall something similar to that was said back in 2011 when we were facing Dayton in the A-10 final and they were only going to take one of us. Think it was committee chair who admitted as much?
VCU currently projected as an 11-seed with the auto. If Dayton wins the auto, I'm not sure if they can basically just slot Dayton into VCU's spot, in which case it's not really much work to decide whether VCU or someone else gets a First Four spot. Things get more complicated if they need to move Dayton down behind some other teams.