About Iran

The Iranians are cutting off their noses to spite their collective faces.
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US Senator Chris Murphy has called it evidence that President Donald Trump misjudged Iran’s capacity to retaliate. CNN has described it as proof that the administration has lost control of the war’s escalation.

The economic pain is real: Oil prices have surged, a record 400 million barrels of oil will be released from global reserves, and Gulf states are facing drone and missile strikes on their energy infrastructure.

But this framing inverts the strategic logic. Closing the strait was always Iran’s most visible retaliatory card, and always a wasting asset. About 90 percent of Iran’s own oil exports pass through Kharg Island and then the strait.

China, Tehran’s largest remaining economic partner, cannot receive Iranian crude while the strait is shut. Every day the blockade continues, Iran severs its own economic lifeline and alienates the one major power that has consistently shielded it at the United Nations. The closure does not just hurt the global economy; it accelerates Iran’s isolation.

 
The analyst concludes:

[C]ritics are making a different error: They are treating the costs of action as if the costs of inaction were zero. They were not. They were measured in the slow accretion of a threat that, left unchecked, would have produced exactly the crisis everyone claims to fear: a nuclear-armed Iran capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz at will, surrounded by proxy forces that could hold the entire region hostage indefinitely.

Seventeen days in, Iran’s supreme leader is dead, his successor is reportedly wounded and every principal instrument of Iranian power projection – missiles, nuclear infrastructure, air defences, the navy, proxy command networks – has been degraded beyond near-term recovery. The campaign’s execution has been imperfect, its public communication poor and its post-conflict planning incomplete. War is never clean. But the strategy – the actual strategy, measured in degraded capabilities rather than cable news cycles – is working.

 
Let us remember what Iran is. Iran brutally executed the person, among others, that President Trump demanded that the regime not execute. They hung this guy at the end of a crane and let him die by strangulation, while he was suspended in the air. In January, Trump said it was a redline for him.

Mojtaba Khamenei regime executes champion wrestler as Iran intensifies brutal crackdown during war

Wrestling authorities face mounting pressure to ban Iran from international competitions after regime targets athletes, executing 19-year-old champion Saleh Mohammadi.
 
This is an interview of Jim Mattis on Firing Line with Margaret Hoover. Mattis offers a clear assessment of the situation with Iran. He is also highly critical of some of the really dumb things Trump is doing, like allowing the Russians and Iranians to sell oil.

 
My take- we have dispatched 10,000 marines to the Persian Gulf. We are going to take Kharg Island and strangle the Iranians. We are also going to give weapons to the Iranians to let them finish the job.
 
Iran shot missiles at Diego Garcia, which is 4,000 km away, or 2,485 miles.
Iran has missiles that can reach London, which is 2,173 miles. That is an imminent threat.

Iran’s danger to Europe has gone from theoretical to real, said a weapons expert in London. Tehran’s missile attack on Diego Garcia, a U.S.-U.K. military base roughly as far from Iran as London and Paris are, shifts the threat of Iran’s missile arsenal from hypothetical to actual, said Douglas Barrie, a specialist in military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.

 
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Iran has arranged for the Iraqi militias (the PMF) that it supports to invade northern Iran in the Kurdistan region. This militia is taking over the function of the Basij in Kurdistan.

Anti-regime media and a Kurdistan Democratic Party-affiliated journalist reported that Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) fighters have deployed to western Iran.[6] An Iraqi official speaking to anti-regime media claimed on March 30 that PMF fighters have deployed to Basij bases in Khorramshahr and Abadan in Khuzestan Province.[7] The Basij is a paramilitary force that is responsible for civil defense and social control.[8] The reported PMF deployment is notable given recent Iranian regime efforts to recruit new security force members.[9] The regime may be mobilizing PMF fighters, in part, to strengthen control over previous protest hotspots. Large protests took place in both Khorramshahr and Abadan during the December 2025-January 2026 protests.[10] Anti-regime media reported on March 29 that the combined force struck a border crossing checkpoint in Shalamcheh, Khuzestan Province.[11] Anti-regime media previously reported that PMF fighters had entered Iran via the Shalamcheh crossing.[12]

 
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