A-10 tournament seeding scenarios

[SFspidur]

Correct me if I'm wrong on this, but here's what I've got for potential top-three seeding depending on results of the final games For reference, Rhode Island closes at home against 7–10 GW, Mason closes at 4–13 Duquesne, and we close at 10–7 St. Joe's.

- URI and GMU win for 16–2, doesn't matter what UR does: URI #1 via H2H tiebreaker, GMU #2, UR #3

- URI wins, GMU loses, UR wins for UR/GMU tie at 15–3: URI #1, UR #2 via highest common opponent (UR 1–1 vs URI, GMU 0–1), GMU #3

- URI wins, GMU loses, UR loses: URI #1, GMU #2, UR #3 no tiebreakers needed

- URI loses, GMU wins, UR wins for URI/UR tie at 15–3: GMU #1, URI #2 via highest common opponent (URI 1–0 vs GMU, UR 1–1), UR #3

- URI loses, GMU wins, UR loses: GMU #1, URI #2, UR #3 no tiebreakers needed

- URI loses, GMU loses, UR wins: URI #1 via 2–1 against the group, UR #2 via 2–2 against the group, GMU #3 via 1–2 against the group

- URI loses, GMU loses, UR loses: URI #1 via H2H tiebreaker, GMU #2, UR #3


So the Spiders are locked in to either the 2 or 3 on the same side of the bracket. 2-seed gets the winner of the 7/10 game, while the 3-seed gets the survivor out of the 6/11/14 portion of the bracket. Seems like too many possibilities given a logjam in the middle to figure out who we might face, including La Salle and Loyola currently tied for the 6 and 7 spots and facing each other in their final games.

 

[Sections 204and5]

I don’t think any corrections are necessary. I think the first scenario you listed is the most likely outcome. And regardless of which scenario plays out our first game will either be against a team that has already played one game in the tournament or one that has played two.

 

[SFspidur]

Agreed that the first is most likely.

To boil it down for the Spiders: If we lose, we're the #3. If we win, we need a Mason loss to move up to the #2 and it doesn't matter what Rhody does.

Obviously the best-case scenario is Mason/Rhody lose and we win. We'd still be the 2-seed, but we'd be in a three-way tie for the regular season title. Seems very unlikely to happen though.

 

[Sections 204and5]

This got me thinking about whether it’s an advantage to be the two seed versus three. It’s marginal at best. The 2 and 3 seeds play the Friday evening session with the 2 playing at 5pm and the 3 at 7:30. If the seeds hold, 2 would meet 3 at 1:30 on Saturday.

 

[RichmondNative]

Thanks for the effort @SFspidur. Looks like #3 seed it will be and I can’t see a material difference if UR was the #2.

Three tournament wins is what the Women’s team needs and looking forward to seeing lots of red at the Henrico Sports complex. Go Spiders!

 

[SFspidur]

Just for fun...using ESPN's matchup predictor, the one scenario that gets us a share of the regular-season title has a 0.6% chance of happening.

75.0% chance of UR win, 12.9% chance of Mason loss, and 6.5% chance of Rhody loss, and we need all of them to happen.

 

[MRspider95]

Don't quote me on this but if I'm viewing the tiebreakers right I think we play the winner of La Salle vs. St. Louis/Fordham on Friday night

 

[MRspider95]

A10 tournament schedule set

https://atlantic10.com/sports/2025/9/11/WBB26.aspx