Expected margin of victory for OOC games

[RichmondNative]

During episode 15 of Spiders Sound Off, Porter spoke about establishing a winning culture and that:
“We need to go out, as I mentioned on a couple of these episodes, and beat teams by 20, 25, 30 points.”

From Spiders Sound Off: Episode 15: UR Media Day Misadventure, Oct 13, 2025

Episode 15: UR Media Day Misadventure

Podcast Episode · Spiders Sound Off · 10/13/2025 · 41m

podcasts.apple.com

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[RichmondNative]

Since I think UR is following the GW blueprint from last year, I reviewed their OOC results. The total of all their margins (positive for win, negative for loss) was 161 for a 13 game average of 12.4. Can the Spiders do better?

 

[MrTbone]

Since I think UR is following the GW blueprint from last year, I reviewed their OOC results. The total of all their margins (positive for win, negative for loss) was 161 for a 13 game average of 12.4. Can the Spiders do better?

I would be real surprised if they did.

 

[*23*]

Native, Kenpom has us going 11-1 in OOC. No score for our d2 opener, he doesn't have non d1 stats. Has us losing to Belmont. In the other 10 wins the average margin of victory is 10.3.

 

[fan2011]

Native, Kenpom has us going 11-1 in OOC. No score for our d2 opener, he doesn't have non d1 stats. Has us losing to Belmont. In the other 10 wins the average margin of victory is 10.3.

Kenpom has us going 9-3 in OOC, but we are favored in all but one game. As a simplified explanation, he thinks it is likely we lose 2 of the 11 games we are favored in.

 

[Urmite]

Kenpom has us going 9-3 in OOC, but we are favored in all but one game. As a simplified explanation, he thinks it is likely we lose 2 of the 11 games we are favored in.

So the probability is not 100% in each of the 11?

 

[RichmondNative]

Native, Kenpom has us going 11-1 in OOC. No score for our d2 opener, he doesn't have non d1 stats. Has us losing to Belmont. In the other 10 wins the average margin of victory is 10.3.

Will be fun to track. Seems like most on the Forum are thinking that the Spiders are going to underachieve in the non-con. I’m cautiously optimistic especially after seeing the JMU game. The team is way ahead of where it was last year in terms of running the offensive and defensive schemes. Obviously you still have to play the games, but between the fact that they seem ready they also play 9 games at home, I think they are in the double digits in OOC wins.

This of course will lead to all sorts of artificial inflation of how good the team is, but we will find out where the Spiders stand quickly with the GW up first.

Game 1 +28
Game 2 +15
Game 3 +4
Game 4
Game 5
Game 6
Game 7
Game 8
Game 9
Game 10
Game 11
Game 12
Game 13

 

[MrTbone]

Will be fun to track. Seems like most on the Forum are thinking that the Spiders are going to underachieve in the non-con. I’m cautiously optimistic especially after seeing the JMU game. The team is way ahead of where it was last year in terms of running the offensive and defensive schemes. Obviously you still have to play the games, but between the fact that they seem ready they also play 9 games at home, I think they are in the double digits in OOC wins.

This of course will lead to all sorts of artificial inflation of how good the team is, but we will find out where the Spiders stand quickly with the GW up first.

Well, when was the last time we overachieved in non-con? I honestly can’t recall.

 

[RichmondNative]

Well, when was the last time we overachieved in non-con? I honestly can’t recall.

When has the non-con been this pitiful.

 

[MrTbone]

When has the non-con been this pitiful.

Last year?